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Thursday, April 17, 2014

Market Performance

The broad market ended flat to slightly higher today. The Russell 2000 outperformed other indexes by climbing up 0.52% while the DJI lost 0.09%. The S&P 500 ended session higher for an fourth time in a row.The NASDAQ 100 ended with a gain of 0.04%. The S&P 500 added 0.14% while the Dow declined 0.09%. The week ends with the NASDAQ 100 gaining 2.54%; the S&P 500 showing a plus of 2.71%, and the Dow closing up 2.37%.

The S&P 500's daily volume was 2,270 million shares today, which was close to the average daily volume sustained over the past 3 months.

IndexChangeOpenHighLowCloseVolume
(thousands)
Advances
/Declines
Adv/Dcl
Ratio
NYSE Comp.27.54(0.26)10,494.4310,554.8310,488.4910,533.1000 / 00.00
DJI14.00(0.09)16,424.1416,460.4916,368.1416,410.1400 / 00.00
S&P 5002.65(0.14)1,861.731,869.631,856.721,864.9100 / 00.00
Russell 20005.92(0.52)1,130.271,141.111,127.041,137.7800 / 00.00
Nasdaq 1001.44(0.04)3,526.573,551.023,511.273,534.5300 / 00.00

Short-Term Market Outlook

5-day charts (1 bar = 5 minutes) with a 20-period SBV are showing declining SBV oscillator readings at session's end. Negative money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of negative trading on Monday after the market open. 15-day charts (1 bar = 15 minutes) with a SBV(16) are showing negative money flow (declining SBV) as well, thus confirming 5-day chart's outlook. 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) with a 13-period SBV are showing declining SBV, however, SBV readings are at positive levels on these charts by suggesting that, even if we see negative trading at the market open, it could be short-lived unless we see stronger SBV decline on the 30-day charts.

Longer-Term Market Outlook

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are now showing flat SBV Oscillator readings on the S&P 500 and on the DJI indexes, advancing readings on the NASDAQ 100 index and advancing readings on the Russell 2000 index. The following SBV values were recorded at session's end: plus 57% on the S&P 500, plus 38% on the DJI, plus 38% on the NASDAQ 100 and plus 34% on the Russell 2000. Flat SBV readings suggest possibility of changes in trend, however, SBV readings are at high positive levels. Furthermore the odds are on the bullish side. We will continue to monitor this chart setting in order to determine at which point SBV oscillator readings start to decline; this might then suggest increased odds for a coming move to the downside.

1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV are showing flat SBV oscillator readings. The negative SBV values seen on this chart are bearish. Overall, despite recent weak recovery, this chart still reflects weak longer-term market sentiment.

Coming Economic Reports

Release Date/TimeEconomic ReportFor PeriodConsensusPrevious
04/21/2014 10:00:00 AMLeading IndicatorsMar0.8%0.5%

Financial Press

From Reuters:

Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region expanded in April at a faster clip than expected, a survey showed on Thursday.

The Federal Reserve logged $84 billion in net profit last year on its massive portfolio of assets, and average income will probably remain higher than before the financial crisis for another decade to come, according to an annual report.

New claims for jobless benefits hovered near their pre-recession levels last week and manufacturing in the Mid-Atlantic region accelerated in April, suggesting an upswing in economic activity after a brutally cold winter.

President Barack Obama's fiscal 2015 budget request would boost U.S. tax revenue by nearly $1.4 trillion over 10 years if fully enacted, slashing deficits by $1.05 trillion while funding new spending, the Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday.

Fund investors worldwide pulled $7.1 billion out of U.S.-focused stock funds in the week ended Tuesday while putting cash into Japanese and emerging market stock funds, data from a Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research report showed on Thursday.

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