Daily Market Outlook

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Friday, April 11, 2014

Market Performance

The broad market declined today. The strongest decline was noted on the Russell 2000 (1.44% loss) while S&P 500 lost only 0.94%. The DJI is now at new eight-week low. The Russell 2000 made a new nine-week low today. The S&P 500 saw its lowest close in eight weeks today. The NASDAQ 100 dropped 1.17%. The S&P 500 dropped 0.94% in today's session, and the Dow lossed 0.87%. For the current week, the NASDAQ 100 is presently showing a loss of 2.61%, the S&P 500 is down 2.65%, and the Dow has thus far lossed 2.34%.

The daily volume of the S&P 500 was 2,593 million shares. This is 14% above the last 3 months average volume.

NYSE Comp.85.88(0.83)10,343.7410,369.9510,271.3510,281.4200 / 00.00
DJI140.71(0.87)16,168.8716,168.8716,015.3216,029.8300 / 00.00
S&P 50017.30(0.94)1,830.651,835.071,814.361,815.7700 / 00.00
Russell 200016.25(1.44)1,119.121,128.951,107.921,111.5300 / 00.00
Nasdaq 10040.91(1.17)3,453.243,502.333,440.553,446.8500 / 00.00

Short-Term Market Outlook

5-day charts (1 bar = 5 minutes) with a 20-period SBV are showing flat negative SBV oscillator readings at session's end. Negative money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of negative trading on Monday after the market open. 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) with a SBV(13) are showing negative money flow (declining SBV) as well. Overall, these charts are in favor of the bears.

Longer-Term Market Outlook

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are now showing declining SBV oscillator readings. The following SBV values were recorded at session's end: minus 36% on the S&P 500, minus 38% on the DJI, minus 41% on the NASDAQ 100 and minus 43% on the Russell 2000. Declining SBV readings are bearish and suggest the possibility of a down-move. We will continue to monitor this chart setting in order to determine at which point SBV oscillator readings start to advance; this might then suggest increased odds for a coming move to the upside.

1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV are showing declining SBV Oscillator readings on the S&P 500 and on the DJI indexes, flat readings on the NASDAQ 100 index and a small decline in readings on the Russell 2000 index. Declining SBV readings are bearish. The negative SBV values seen on this chart are also bearish. This chart setting suggests a bearish longer-term market sentiment.

Coming Economic Reports

Release Date/TimeEconomic ReportFor PeriodConsensusPrevious
04/14/2014 8:30:00 AMRetail SalesMar1%0.3%
04/14/2014 8:30:00 AMRetail Sales ex-autoMar0.5%0.3%

Financial Press

From Reuters:

Detroit's plan to get out of bankruptcy cleared a major hurdle on Friday when a U.S. Bankruptcy Court judge approved the cash-strapped city's third attempt at settling costly interest-rate swap agreements with two investment banks.

Finance chiefs from around the globe on Friday gave the United States until year-end to ratify long-delayed reforms to the International Monetary Fund and threatened to move forward without it if it fails to do so.

U.S. producer prices recorded their largest increase in nine months in March, but that jump will probably not ignite inflation pressures as economic growth remains moderate.

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