Daily Market Outlook

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Monday, April 14, 2014

Market Performance

The broad market advanced today. The DJI outperformed other indexes by climbing up 0.89% while the Russell 2000 gained only 0.33%.

Today, the S&P 500's daily volume was 2,048 million shares. This average was 10% lower that the average daily volume for the past 3 months.

IndexChangeOpenHighLowCloseVolume
(thousands)
Advances
/Declines
Adv/Dcl
Ratio
NYSE Comp.77.33(0.75)10,343.5310,380.1910,287.2910,358.7500 / 00.00
DJI143.15(0.89)16,028.2916,184.7616,028.2916,172.9800 / 00.00
S&P 50014.80(0.82)1,818.181,834.191,815.801,830.5700 / 00.00
Russell 20003.71(0.33)1,121.051,126.301,105.561,115.2400 / 00.00
Nasdaq 10027.78(0.81)3,479.663,493.173,443.263,474.6300 / 00.00

Short-Term Market Outlook

5-day charts (1 bar = 5 minutes) with a 20-period SBV are showing advancing SBV oscillator readings at session's end. Positive money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of positive trading tomorrow after the market open. 15-day charts (1 bar = 15 minutes) with a SBV(16) are showing positive money flow (advancing SBV) as well, thus confirming 5-day chart's outlook. 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) with a 13-period SBV are showing flat SBV, yet, SBV readings are at positive levels which would favor bulls as well.

Longer-Term Market Outlook

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are now showing declining SBV oscillator readings. The following SBV values were recorded at session's end: minus 48% on the S&P 500, minus 50% on the DJI, minus 59% on the NASDAQ 100 and minus 63% on the Russell 2000. Declining SBV readings are bearish and suggest the possibility of a down-move. We will continue to monitor this chart setting in order to determine at which point SBV oscillator readings start to advance; this might then suggest increased odds for a coming move to the upside.

1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV are showing declining SBV Oscillator readings on the S&P 500, on the DJI and on the Russell 2000 indexes and flat readings on the NASDAQ 100 index. Declining SBV readings are bearish. The negative SBV values seen on this chart are also bearish. This chart setting suggests a bearish longer-term market sentiment.

Coming Economic Reports

Release Date/TimeEconomic ReportFor PeriodConsensusPrevious
04/15/2014 8:30:00 AMCore CPIMar0.1%0.1%
04/15/2014 8:30:00 AMCPIMar0.1%0.1%
04/15/2014 8:30:00 AMEmpire Manufacturing IndexApr7.5%5.6%

Financial Press

From Reuters:

For wealthy U.S. investors who have not been paying attention, their 2013 tax returns, which must be filed by Tuesday, may contain a rude surprise: higher taxes.

Health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act will cost slightly less than previously thought, helping to slow down the forecast growth of U.S. deficits over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office said on Monday.

U.S. retail sales recorded their largest gain in 1-1/2 years in March in a decisive sign the economy is bouncing back from its weather-induced slumber.

Hedge funds, not banks, may be the most important transmitters of shocks during financial crises, according a study published Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

U.S. budget deficits over the next decade will be $286 billion less than previously estimated, the Congressional Budget Office said on Monday, attributing much of the decline to lower estimates of subsidy costs under President Barack Obama's health insurance reform law.

U.S. consumers grew more confident in the labor market last month, with younger workers in particular seeing a greater chance of finding work should they lose their current job, a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Monday.

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