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Wednesday, April 09, 2014

Market Performance

The broad market shot significantly higher today. The NASDAQ 100 outperformed other indexes by climbing up 1.76% while the S&P 500 gained only 1.09%. The last strongest up-move was seen on the NASDAQ 100 on 02/07/2014.

Today, the S&P 500's daily volume was 2,161 million shares. This was close to the average daily volume for the past 3 months.

NYSE Comp.103.16(0.99)10,479.6310,555.4210,455.0510,555.2700 / 00.00
DJI180.57(1.11)16,256.3716,438.8216,256.3716,436.7800 / 00.00
S&P 50020.20(1.09)1,852.641,872.431,852.381,872.1800 / 00.00
Russell 200015.72(1.37)1,148.001,160.421,144.771,160.0900 / 00.00
Nasdaq 10062.21(1.76)3,552.383,602.353,544.093,600.4400 / 00.00

Short-Term Market Outlook

5-day charts (1 bar = 5 minutes) with a 20-period SBV are showing declining SBV oscillator readings at session's end. Negative money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of negative trading tomorrow after the market open. 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) with a 13-period SBV are showing flat SBV with readings that are at high, positive levels which would favor bulls. Furthermore, it is difficult to consider 5- and 15-day charts' outlook as strong signals unless we see declining SBV readings on 30-day charts as well. We would continue monitoring this chart for clearer SBV direction, as it may define next trading session's sentiment.

It is worth mentioning about strong bullish volume surge during today's up-move. While sentiment based on money flow remains slightly in the favor of the Bulls for tomorrow, because of today's bullish volume surge, we do not expect a strong advance tomorrow, but rather halting of today's recovery.

Longer-Term Market Outlook

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are now showing advancing SBV oscillator readings. The following SBV values were recorded at session's end: 0% on the S&P 500, plus 2% on the DJI, plus 34% on the NASDAQ 100 and plus 18% on the Russell 2000. Advancing SBV readings are bullish and suggest the possibility of a up-move. We will continue to monitor this chart setting in order to determine at which point SBV oscillator readings start to decline; this might then suggest increased odds for a coming move to the downside.

1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV are showing declining SBV Oscillator readings on the S&P 500 and on the DJI indexes, flat readings on the NASDAQ 100 index and flat readings on the Russell 2000 index. This chart setting suggests an uncertain market sentiment. However taking into account big bullish volume accumulation on this chart we may assume that this chart slightly favors longer-term bears.

Coming Economic Reports

Release Date/TimeEconomic ReportFor PeriodConsensusPrevious
04/10/2014 8:30:00 AMContinuing Claims04/052843K2838K
04/10/2014 8:30:00 AMExport Prices ex-ag.03/29%0.6%
04/10/2014 8:30:00 AMImport Prices ex-oilMar%-0.1%
04/10/2014 8:30:00 AMInitial Claims04/05325K322K

Financial Press

From Reuters:

The U.S. Federal Reserve has been too timid in its efforts to bring employment and inflation back up to normal levels, despite more than five years of extraordinarily super-easy policy, a top Fed official said on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve officials fretted last month that investors would overreact to fresh forecasts that appeared to map out a more aggressive cycle of interest rate increases than policymakers actually anticipated.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise its key interest rate until at least July next year as it waits for the world's biggest economy to gather pace, according to a slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll.

U.S. wholesale inventories rose at a slower pace in February, strengthening views that restocking will weigh on economic growth in the first quarter.

Large debt piles at companies are rendering emerging economies more fragile because they could quickly transmit trouble to banking systems in a crisis, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.

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