Daily Market Outlook

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Thursday, April 10, 2014

Market Performance

The broad market suffered a strong decline today. The strongest decline was noted on the NASDAQ 100 (3.13% loss) while S&P 500 lost only 2.09%. The DJI is now at new three-week low. The Russell 2000 made a new eight-week low today. The S&P 500 saw its lowest close in seven weeks today. The NASDAQ 100 pushed to new nine-week low today. The S&P 500 saw its worst decline since 02/03/2014 when the S&P 500 lost -2.27%. The least downside was seen on the DJI on 02/03/2014. The NASDAQ 100 had its strongest decline since 11/09/2011. The last strongest decline was seen on the Russell 2000 on 02/03/2014. The NASDAQ 100 slid 3.13%. The S&P 500 dropped 2.09% today. The Dow closed with a loss of 1.62%. The current weekly tallies now show the NASDAQ 100 with loss of 1.46%; the S&P 500 is presently down 1.73% for the week, and the Dow is in the red by 1.49%.

Today, the S&P 500's daily volume was 2,575 million shares. This average was 14% higher that the average daily volume for the past 3 months.

NYSE Comp.187.97(1.78)10,549.4010,554.9710,355.8910,367.3000 / 00.00
DJI266.24(1.62)16,437.2416,456.1116,153.3416,170.5400 / 00.00
S&P 50039.11(2.09)1,872.281,872.531,830.871,833.0700 / 00.00
Russell 200032.31(2.79)1,159.261,159.791,123.681,127.7800 / 00.00
Nasdaq 100112.68(3.13)3,597.583,599.643,479.153,487.7600 / 00.00

Short-Term Market Outlook

5-day charts (1 bar = 5 minutes) with a 20-period SBV are showing declining SBV oscillator readings at session's end. Negative money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of negative trading tomorrow after the market open. 15-day charts (1 bar = 15 minutes) with a SBV(16) and 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) with a SBV(13) are showing negative money flow (declining SBV) as well. Overall, these charts are in favor of the bears.

Longer-Term Market Outlook

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are now showing declining SBV oscillator readings. The following SBV values were recorded at session's end: plus 8% on the S&P 500, 0% on the DJI, plus 24% on the NASDAQ 100 and plus 12% on the Russell 2000. Declining SBV readings are bearish and suggest the possibility of a down-move. At the same time, SBV values are still at positive levels; we may thus see side-ways and positive trading action prior to any decline. We will continue to monitor this chart setting in order to determine at which point SBV oscillator readings push to the zero-line; this might then suggest increased odds for a coming move to the downside.

1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV are showing flat SBV oscillator readings. The negative SBV values seen on this chart are bearish. Overall, this chart reflects bearish longer-term market sentiment.

Coming Economic Reports

Release Date/TimeEconomic ReportFor PeriodConsensusPrevious
04/11/2014 8:30:00 AMCore PPIMar0.1%-0.2%
04/11/2014 8:30:00 AMPPIMar0.1%-0.1%

Financial Press

From Reuters:

The European Central Bank will choose the appropriate form of quantitative easing, if it were to launch it, depending on the challenge it faces, but for now it is important that the bank unanimously backed the possibility of such a policy measure.

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits tumbled last week to the lowest level in nearly seven years, strengthening views of faster job growth.

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday urged nations around the world to move ahead more quickly on policies needed to secure a stronger recovery and avoid a prolonged global slump.

The U.S. government last month posted a budget deficit of $37 billion, down from $107 billion in the same period last year, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday.

Wall Street bond dealers began anticipating an earlier first interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve after last month's policy meeting, according to the results of a poll by the New York Fed released on Thursday.

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