Daily Market Outlook

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Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Market Performance

The broad market advanced today. The NASDAQ 100 outperformed other indexes by climbing up 1.30% while the S&P 500 gained only 1.05%.

2,198 million shares traded this session on the S&P 500. This was close to the daily average volume of the past 3 months.

IndexChangeOpenHighLowCloseVolume
(thousands)
Advances
/Declines
Adv/Dcl
Ratio
NYSE Comp.103.72(1.00)10,450.6110,505.5610,435.8310,505.5600 / 00.00
DJI161.77(0.99)16,266.2316,424.5916,266.2316,424.1400 / 00.00
S&P 50019.31(1.05)1,846.011,862.261,846.011,862.2600 / 00.00
Russell 200012.32(1.10)1,126.451,132.101,121.851,131.8600 / 00.00
Nasdaq 10045.24(1.30)3,517.503,533.093,489.293,533.0900 / 00.00

Short-Term Market Outlook

5-day charts (1 bar = 5 minutes) with a 20-period SBV are showing advancing SBV oscillator readings at session's end. Positive money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of positive trading tomorrow after the market open. 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) with a 13-period SBV are showing flat SBV, yet, SBV readings are at positive levels which would favor bulls as well.

Longer-Term Market Outlook

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are now showing advancing SBV oscillator readings. The following SBV values were recorded at session's end: plus 62% on the S&P 500, plus 54% on the DJI, plus 28% on the NASDAQ 100 and plus 7% on the Russell 2000. Advancing SBV readings are bullish and suggest the possibility of a up-move. We will continue to monitor this chart setting in order to determine at which point SBV oscillator readings start to decline; this might then suggest increased odds for a coming move to the downside.

1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV are showing declining SBV oscillator readings. Declining SBV readings are bearish. The negative SBV values seen on this chart are also bearish. This chart setting suggests a bearish longer-term market sentiment.

Coming Economic Reports

Release Date/TimeEconomic ReportFor PeriodConsensusPrevious
04/17/2014 8:30:00 AMContinuing Claims04/052800K2750K
04/17/2014 8:30:00 AMInitial Claims04/12312K302K

Financial Press

From Reuters:

Persistently low inflation poses a more immediate threat to the U.S. economy than rising prices, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Wednesday, stressing that the U.S. central bank would be delivering policy stimulus for some time to come.

Two U.S. senators on Wednesday pushed the Federal Reserve to write tough new rules to limit Wall Street's role in commodity markets, stepping up pressure for a clampdown on some of the country's largest banks.

U.S. industrial production rose at a faster-than-expected clip in March, the latest sign the economy was gaining momentum.

U.S. economic activity picked up in recent weeks as a weather-related drag lifted, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday.

The euro zone is set for at least two more years of low inflation, held down by a strong currency and anemic economic and jobs growth, and still faces a very real threat of deflation, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

The world economy can expect steady growth at best over the coming year, but any rapid slowdown in China as it tries to rebalance its economy could upset the still-unsteady progress, Reuters polls showed.

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